Executive Summary

China is consolidating its role as Myanmar’s primary external power broker, simultaneously balancing relations with warring factions while securing strategic investments and positioning itself as an indispensable mediator in any future political settlement.

Since early 2025, Beijing has applied coordinated pressure on both the junta and ethnic armed groups. At the same time, it deepened engagement tied to border security, rare earth supply chains, and the China-Myanmar Economic Corridor (CMEC). Verified reporting from April–July 2025 shows China brokering and monitoring ceasefires, coercing ethnic armed groups through economic leverage, deploying China-aligned security actors to safeguard rare-earth and CMEC-linked sites, and publicly demanding security guarantees for Chinese personnel and infrastructure. 

At the same time, China has also facilitated formal negotiations. Most recently, the October 2025 TNLA–junta ceasefire in Kunming signalled an intent to shape future talks across factions. Beijing’s actions indicate a durable strategy. China is stabilising the border, securing strategic assets, and cementing its role as Myanmar’s essential diplomatic intermediary.