Since the fall of Muammar Gaddafi’s regime, a number of different militias have spread in Libya. Initially, the United Nations-backed Government of National Accord (GNA) sought to conclude agreements with militias in Tripoli, legitimising their role in exchange for securing the capital city. At present, the main control over the joints of the capital is limited to four armed formations, namely: Ghaniwa, Al-Nawasi, the Deterrence Force, and the 444th Brigade. Despite their loyalty to one party between the Presidential Council and the “Interim National Unity” government, they often clash over vital sites in the city.

Moreover, mediation by Prime Minister of the Unity Government, Abdul Hamid Dabaiba, has failed to stop the armed battles. Additionally, Libyan military sources revealed that the number of regular members in the Libyan National Army, led by Major General Khalifa Haftar, has increased to about 70,000 soldiers and officers. Despite the strict conditions for joining this army, which lacks financial resources, about 40,000 new recruits were recruited by Haftar’s forces. They have undergone harsh military training in recent months, while the rest are former members of the Ministry of Defence.

Key Judgement 1. It is likely that Haftar’s son and military heir will assume control of the most Libyan Arab Armed Forces.

Key Judgement 2. It is likely that active militias in the west of Libya will be ostensibly integrated into state institutions in the next 12 months.

Key Judgement 3. It is likely that the government will fail to exert control over the militants in the next 12 months.