The ongoing civil war in Sudan between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) created a humanitarian disaster. Refugees from Sudan flooded into every neighbouring state. Egypt has taken in thousands of Sudanese civilians in the middle of a tumultuous, multi-decade transition. With a downgraded credit rating, severe inflation and unsustainable debt, the Egyptian economy is on the rocks. Refugees only add to those pressures. It is little wonder then, that Egypt has a vested interest in the security architecture of Sudan and in particular the SAF. There is a strong possibility that Egyptian support for the SAF could directly impact events in war-torn Libya. Egypt will likely attempt to leverage Sudan for its own foreign political agenda.

Key Judgement-1: It is highly likely that Egypt will enhance its support for the SAF in order to better manage cross-border refugee flows in the next 6 months.

Key Judgement-2: It is likely that Egyptian support for the SAF will damage Egyptian-Emirati relations, thereby straining future peace talks in Libya and Sudan.

Key Judgement-3: It is unlikely that Egypt will launch an intervention in Sudan in the next 6 months.