On 9 March, the Polisario Front attacked a Moroccan military base in Mahbas, marking another significant event in the ongoing Western Sahara conflict escalation. Polisario Front has recently intensified attacks against Moroccan military installations and civilian areas to assert dominance in the region. In this most recent attack, Polisario army units inflicted substantial casualties and equipment damage on Moroccan forces. This attack indicates an increasingly aggressive approach. The escalation is part of a pattern of intensified hostilities dating back to April 2023. Additionally, recent incidents occur dangerously close to civilian populations. Moreover, Russia’s involvement as an ally to the Polisario Front in diplomatic discussions, along with threats concerning airspace control, complicates the conflict further. Meanwhile, diplomatic support for Morocco’s autonomy proposal from Spain, juxtaposed with the USA’s backing, adds layers of complexity to the situation.

Key Judgment 1. It’s likely that the Polisario Front will continue the escalation of its attacks to hold a referendum on self-determination of Western Sahara over the next 12 months.

Key Judgment 2. It’s likely that Polisario Front will likely leverage diplomatic relations with Russia and Spain to undermine Moroccan claims to Western Sahara in the next 12 months.

Key Judgment 3. Morocco will likely seek American and Spanish support for their autonomy proposal in the next 12 months.