The meeting between United States Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Foreign Minister Nasser Bourita of the Kingdom of Morocco on the 21st of March, 2023, confirmed the course of the US-Morocco partnership over the matter of Western Sahara. Western Sahara’s position as the UN’s most populated non-self-governed territory continues to degrade, as diplomatic capital collects behind Morocco’s planned reorganisation of the region as an autonomous part of Morocco. Support continues to grow for Morocco’s Western Sahara Autonomy Proposal plan.

Key Judgement 1. Within the next 12 months, Israel is likely to support Morocco’s Western Sahara Autonomy Proposal in the United Nations.

Key Judgement 2. It is unlikely that an armed Algerian-Moroccan conflict will break out over Western Sahara within the next 12 months.

Key Judgement 3. Leaders of the Polisario Front are unlikely to agree to meet with Moroccan leadership to discuss the Western Sahara Autonomy Proposal within the next 12 months.