Failed Negotiations in the Sudanese Conflict: A 6 Month Outlook

Sudan’s civil conflict has been ongoing since April 2023. Alongside Ukraine, Gaza and Burma, Sudan is one of the perennial conflicts of this decade. US let efforts to mediate a solution fell apart in August when both sides failed to appear at peace talks in Switzerland. As of now, no end is in sight to Sudan’s Civil War. We examine the probability of future peace talks in the near term. The role of external actors such as the UAE and Saudi Arabia is also examined. We also take a look at where battle lines currently stand.

KJ-1: It is highly unlikely that the military junta or the RSF will actively attend future peace negotiations in the next 6 months.

KJ-2: It is likely that Emirati support for the RSF could stress US-Emirati relations in the next 6 months.

KJ-3: It is likely that the RSF will continue to expand and solidify its control in the Darfur and Kordofan regions over the next 6 months.