Since the breakdown of the truce between Houthi and Government forces in Yemen in early October 2022, the Houthi rebels have been striking oil infrastructure in the region in order to extract more concessions. Furthermore, Iran is continuing to supply the Houthis with arms and components for rockets/drones, enabling them in their attempts to threaten oil infrastructure. With the U.S. taking a renewed interest in the Yemen peace process as President Biden attempts to repair his relationship with Saudi Arabia for lower oil prices, the Houthis will attract his attention soon.
KJ-1: It is highly likely that Houthi rebels will continue to strike oil infrastructure in the Gulf region in the next 6 months.
- On the 22nd of November 2022, a Houthi drone attacked the al-Dhabba oil terminal in Yemen’s Eastern Hadramout governorate. Source
- This is a continuation to a pattern of Houthi rebels striking energy infrastructure within Yemen. (Source)
- There have been numerous Houthi drone strikes over the course of November 2022. (Source)
- This demonstrates a rise in drone attacks (particularly by larger drones) since the breakdown of the truce in October 2022. (Source)
- Attacking oil infrastructure is part of a scheme to extract better terms in the ongoing peace talks by the Houthis. (Source)
- The Houthis are more willing to continue to use violence as part of their negotiating strategy. (Source)
- Furthermore, they have often exploited looming disasters such as the FSO safer to acquire concessions.
- The Houthis have struck oil infrastructure outside of Yemen in Saudi Arabia and the UAE before. (Source)
KJ-2: It is highly likely that Iran will continue supplying the Houthis with supplies for drones and rockets in the next 6 months.
- On the 1st of December 2022, the U.S. Navy intercepted an arms shipment containing over 1 million rounds of ammunition meant for Houthi forces from Iran. (Source)
- Iran has utilised the Houthis to indirectly attack Saudi Arabia and the UAE before including attacks on US service members. (Source)
- On the 15th of November, the U.S. Navy intercepted a ship carrying over 70 tons of missile fuel meant for Houthi forces from Iran. (Source)
- Iran is increasingly hostile to the U.S. due to criticism over domestic issues and lack of progress on nuclear talks. (Source)
- With Iran’s worsening relations with Saudi Arabia and the UAE it makes sense for Iran to supply the Houthis as they threaten even their infrastructure.
- Yemen is a key ally of both Saudi Arabia and the UAE, so supplying the Houthis damages Iran’s rivals. (Source)
KJ-3: It is likely that the U.S. will take more of an interest in Yemen and the Houthis in the next 6 months.
- The U.S. special envoy to the region supporting the Yemen peace effort has called for the cessation of drone strikes by the Houthis. (Source)
- It is heavily suspected that there is a U.S. presence inside Yemen currently due to satellite images taken over Riyan airport. (Source)
- Members of the U.S. Senate have accused the current administration of planning to allow the Saudis to resume the war in Yemen for lower oil prices. (Source)
- The U.S. recently granting the Saudi Crown prince and Prime Minister immunity over the Khashoggi killing demonstrates a closer bond. (Source)
Intelligence Cut-Off Date: 13th of December 2022
