Executive Summary

We assess that the Islamic State – Khorasan Province (ISKP) is rapidly emerging as the most lethal and dangerous IS branch and that it will retain that status at least for the next six months. With significant expansion across Central Asia, the group is exploiting porous regional counterterrorism efforts, which allows it to effectively recruit and move fighters across borders. Additionally, we observe increased dedication and persistence to grow its presence across Europe and the United States with the aim of carrying out attacks in Western countries.