The Islamic State is making a resurgence in the Puntland region of Somalia after months of pressure both from the United States and the Somalian Government. Since May, the terrorist organization has increased their activity regarding armed actions and economic dynamics, casting doubt on the current status of the jihadist threat. (Source)

Somalia’s branch of Daesh ha launched several attacks on security forces and civilian population while waging a turf war with al-Shabaab for the strategic control of the mountain ranges in Puntland. Areas previously under the control of al-Shabaab like the city of Bosaso, or the villages in Qandala, are now under the influence of Daesh. (Source)

Battles between the extremist militants is also changing the local economy and interclan relations. The Islamic State is expanding their extortion activities in Puntland to support the expansion from the northern strongholds, as well as instrumentalizing interclan fighting to recruit fighters into his militant formation. (Source)

Key Judgement 1. The Islamic State is likely to transform into the primary threat to government forces and civilian population in Puntland State in the near future.

Key Judgement 2. There is a realistic probability that the Islamic State will push Harakat al-Shabaab out of Puntland State.

Key Judgement 3. It is unlikely that the Islamic State will expand outside of Puntland State or pose a significant threat to the rest of East Africa.