Security is heavily deteriorating in Mali as jihadist militants increase the scope of their offensive against the military regime. Bamako, the country’s capital, was attacked last week by suicide terrorists in a coordinated strike that left 70 dead and 200 wounded. Attacks on Bamako Gendamire School and Modibo Keita Airport highlight the terrorist group’s capabilities to conduct attacks inside regime strongholds. Furthermore, Jama’at Nasr al-Islam wal Muslimin (JNIM) militants made steady advances on Interim President Assimi Goita troops (FAMA) in the south of the country. Al-Qaeda-linked militants are the main threat to Mali, but also to the rest of the Sahel, as their range of action and attack capabilities expand in the region. Salman al-Bambari and Salam al-Fulani managed to merge the country’s main ethnic groups (Fulanis and Bambaras) into a terrorist coalition unknown to borders and politics. 

Key Judgement 1. Assimi Goita’s military junta is unlikely to stabilize the security situation before the end of the year and contain the jihadist groups attacking government forces. 

Key Judgement 2. There is a realistic probability that jihadists fighting in Mali will encircle Bamako in the next three years.

Key Judgement 3. The success of militant offensives in Mali against government forces is likely to emancipate neighbouring threats in The Sahel in the next six months.