Jihadist Advance: Mali Security Threat Assessment 

Security is heavily deteriorating in Mali as jihadist militants increase the scope of their offensive against the military regime. Bamako, the country’s capital, was attacked last week by suicide terrorists in a coordinated strike that left 70 dead and 200 wounded. Attacks on Bamako Gendamire School and Modibo Keita Airport highlight the terrorist group’s capabilities to conduct attacks inside regime strongholds. Furthermore, Jama’at Nasr al-Islam wal Muslimin (JNIM) militants made steady advances on Interim President Assimi Goita troops (FAMA) in the south of the country. Al-Qaeda-linked militants are the main threat to Mali, but also to the rest of the Sahel, as their range of action and attack capabilities expand in the region. Salman al-Bambari and Salam al-Fulani managed to merge the country’s main ethnic groups (Fulanis and Bambaras) into a terrorist coalition unknown to borders and politics. 

Key Judgement 1. Assimi Goita’s military junta is unlikely to stabilize the security situation before the end of the year and contain the jihadist groups attacking government forces. 

Key Judgement 2. There is a realistic probability that jihadists fighting in Mali will encircle Bamako in the next three years.

Key Judgement 3. The success of militant offensives in Mali against government forces is likely to emancipate neighbouring threats in The Sahel in the next six months.

Rest of this post is for paying members only

Already have an account?  Log in

Free Plan
Free
Secret Plan
$14.99
/ month
Recommended
Top Secret Plan
$39.99
/ month
Free Plan
Free
Secret Plan
$14.99
/ month
Recommended
Top Secret Plan
$39.99
/ month
Table of Contents

Related Content

Secret

Global Piracy Trends: Less Often, More Violent

Secret

Dirty Bomb: Do Drones and AI Change the Game? 

Secret

Illegal Timber Trade: Degrading environments and fueled conflicts

Secret

HTS-led Syria: Security and Police Restructuring

Location:_ MENA
Secret

Counterfeit Currency: State and Future of the Threat

Location:_ Europe, North America
Secret

Ukrainian Intelligence Operations: 2025 Forecast

Stay in the loop

Get a free weekly email that makes reading intel articles and reports actually enjoyable.

Log in

Stay in the loop

Get a free weekly email that makes reading Intelligence Reports and Articles actually enjoyable.

Table of Contents

Contact

Contact

"*" indicates required fields

This field is for validation purposes and should be left unchanged.