On 20 July, Jama’a Nusrat ul-Islam wa al-Muslimin (JNIM) launched an attack on an army barracks in Northern Togo, killing twelve Togolese soldiers. The incident was the deadliest cross-border JNIM attack since July 2023. Over the past 18 months, JNIM has increased the frequency of assaults into Northern Togo. In the last 7 months alone, Togo recorded 10 cross-border attacks compared to 14 across all of 2023.

Since 2022, President Faure Gnassingbe has sought to address the security situation by increasing security ties with Russia whilst simultaneously balancing relations with the US, France and ECOWAS. Despite Russia’s attraction to Gnassingbe’s authoritarianism, the Togolese president has been at the forefront of encouraging dialogue between ECOWAS and the Sahel’s military junta. Going into 2025, an election year in Togo, the worsening security situation in the North will be near the top of the political agenda. The election is also likely to also be dominated by Gnassingbe’s unpopular constitutional reforms which aim to protect his grip on power.

Key Judgement 1. It is likely JNIM’s stronghold along the Burkinabe-Togolese border will enable increased attacks into Northern Togo over the next 12 months.

Key Judgement 2. It is highly likely further cross-border JNIM attacks into Togo over the next 12 months will drive an expansion of the Russian-Togolese security partnership.

Key Judgement 3. It is unlikely Wagner forces will enter Togo in the next 12 months unless the Togolese political and security situation significantly deteriorates.