In 2023, Burkina Faso is struggling, as domestic conflict and instability severely affect the country and its leadership. Agricultural dependence is a crucial sector experiencing abandoned lands following displaced populations.

Moreover, Russia is increasingly taking advantage of the fragile situation and the mistrust towards the West as a security provider.

As the relatively new regime is struggling to fulfil the promises behind the support in the coup d’état in September 2022, there are prospects of increasing terrorist provocations and harsh government countermeasures at the risk of affecting local populations and minorities.

Key Judgement 1. Famine and food insecurity will likely spur further domestic conflict in Burkina Faso in the next 12 months.

Key Judgement 2. Wagner Group activity will likely incentivise cross-border salafi-jihadist expansion from Burkina Faso in the next 12 months.

Key Judgement 3. Increasing tensions in Burkina Faso will likely be met by governmental response affecting domestic minorities in the next 12 months.