The country of Niger plays a vital role in the Sahel. Although often overshadowed by its southeastern neighbour, Niger is a linchpin in maintaining regional stability [source]. At the same time, it is one of the weakest countries on the planet, ranking 187 out of 191 on the Human Development Index [source]. This unique position merits analysis. Over the next 12-months, Niger is likely to expand its reliance on western powers for security, increase the pace of economic development, and is almost certain to experience extensive climate change-related shocks.

Key Judgement 1. Over the next 12 months, Niger will likely increase and rely on cooperation with Western powers to address the insecurity of its western borders. This will function to place the country into the Western sphere of influence.

Key Judgement 2. Niger’s economic development will likely accelerate in the next 12 months. Although its economic stature will not be significantly different in 2024.

Key Judgement 3. Climate change in the Sahel over the next 12 months is likely to have extreme consequences for the population and economy. This could further destabilise the Sahel than it already is.