Executive Summary

We assess that counterterrorism efforts in Southeast Asia—particularly in the Philippines, Malaysia, and Indonesia—are effective in reducing the overall terrorism threat. While regional dynamics remain fragile, with multiple terrorist attacks over the last years, the overall trend is downward. That said, with the dissolution of the physical presence of multiple armed groups, much terrorist activity has moved online. Online radicalisation remains a prime vector for extremist recruitment, targeting primarily young people. Additionally, this adds to the threat posed by terrorist splinter cells and lone wolf actors. They can operate without organisational hierarchies, which are notoriously difficult to track.