On 11 February, the Ukrainian Main Directorate of Intelligence claimed that Russian forces were using Starlink in occupied Ukraine [Source]. Since February 2022, Ukraine has been reliant on SpaceX’s Starlink for military, government and civilian communications. SpaceX has expressed an uneasiness with Ukraine using their technology for offensive military purposes. On 14 February 2024, Starlink access was granted in Gaza through an agreement with the Israeli government. Starlink’s role as a dual use technology has granted SpaceX’s founder Elon Musk significant influence over geopolitics. The direction Starlink takes over the next 12 months will be indicative of SpaceX’s alignment with US and western interests.
Key Judgement 1. Over the next 12 months SpaceX is highly likely to heavily restrict Starlink in Russian occupied Ukraine.
Key Judgement 2. It is almost certain that Gaza will not receive Starlink access for the duration of Israeli military operations.
Key Judgement 3. Countries hostile to the USA are high unlikely to gain Starlink access in the next 12 months.