Executive summary 

Syria last month again drew the international community’s attention with the eruption of violence involving minority groups. Internal clashes between Al-Sharaa’s government and the minorities have, since March, demonstrated that the regime’s planned changes for the nation will take time and effort, while being marred by devastating casualties along the way. 

The involvement of Israel and Turkey in the conflict only complicates the situation. We have not seen any indications that Israel plans to reduce or end its longstanding support of the Druze. Meanwhile, Türkiye continues to emerge as a dominant regional actor in post-Assad Syria, and we do not see any indication that Ankara intends to change this trajectory. At this juncture, it remains unclear if the failed U.S.-brokered ceasefire in Suwayda can be salvaged.

Background: On 13 July 2025, Bedouin* fighters at a checkpoint near Suwayda in southern Syria kidnapped and assaulted a Druze** merchant. This incident prompted further clashes. It was the first outbreak of deadly violence in the area since the fighting between members of the Druze community and security forces killed dozens of people in April and May 2025. During the July 2025 violence, the violence soon extended beyond Suwayda, and Israel launched airstrikes on Syrian government positions in Damascus, such as the Ministry of Defence and the Presidential palace, supporting the Druze. On 19 July 2025, a ceasefire was declared in Suwayda and collapsed soon after. 

* Bedouin tribes are Sunni tribal fighters who inhabit rural areas around Suwayda and have longstanding disputes with the Druze over land and smuggling routes.

**The Druze are an offshoot of Islam with communities in Syria, Israel, and Lebanon. 

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