Executive Summary

The Syrian Interior Ministry’s recent military offensive against the Kurds in Raqqa and Deir ez-Zor has reduced the territorial control and operational capacity of the Syrian Democratic Forces, increasing the likelihood of a Daesh resurgence in northeastern Syria. 

The Kurdish militia, currently losing ground and power to Damascus, has served since the beginning of the Syrian civil conflict as a main counterterrorism and counterinsurgency actor, responsible for managing the detection and detention of suspected members of Daesh.

Among the immediate fallout in regional stability is Damascus takeover of Kurdish detention facilities, as unvetted liberation of suspected Daesh operatives could amount to the operational reconstitution of the group, both in Syria and Iraq. 

Although President Al-Sharaa forces may assume formal control of critical areas, the evidence indicates they currently don’t have the institutional capacity and local legitimacy to replicate the role that was fulfilled by the Syrian Democratic Forces.

Furthermore, documented incidents of sectarian clashes between Kurds and Sunni militias may facilitate the radicalisation and recruitment of individuals, if exploited by the propaganda channels of the Islamic State.