Tanzania is an energy-rich country, often overlooked in global markets. It has a natural abundance of various sources of hydropower, hydrocarbons and biofuel. Despite its junior position in the global energy markets, its lot offers a unique position in the African energy field. The war in Ukraine and sanctions on Russian gas forced Western nations to turn elsewhere for reliable sources of oil. Tanzania may well become a major actor for Western energy supplies. Islamic State insurgents in neighboring Mozambique may complicate the development of Tanzania’s energy sector. At the present moment, it does not appear they pose a major threat to Tanzanian infrastructure. Tanzania’s energy sector is headed upward, barring any surprise developments in Mozambique.
KJ-1: It is highly likely that the Tanzanian energy sector will expand in the next 6 months.
- Tanzania announced several major initiatives to increase natural gas exploration projects by 2023. This is in line with Kenyan and Ugandan ambitions to develop their own natural gas exploration initiatives [source].
- Tanzania has roughly 57 trillion cubic feet of untapped natural gas and recently signed a $30 billion dollar deal with Western gas firms to exploit the resources, potentially producing 10 million tons per year by 2025 [source].
- According to the Tanzanian Energy Ministry, it is believed that Tanzania has only explored 30% of the available gas on Tanzanian territory [source].
- Tazania hopes to boost gas exploration by up to 70% in the coming months [source].
- Tanzania and Kenya agreed to speed up the construction of a $1.1 billion, 600 km long LNG pipeline between Dar Es Salaam and Mombassa [source].
- Uganda and Tanzania agreed to construct the 900 km East African Crude Oil Pipeline (EACOP), running to terminals located at Tanga on the Tanzanian coast [source].
- Built by a joint Chinese and Australian effort, it is set to be the longest heated crude oil pipeline ever constructed [source].
- The ECAOP pipeline is enormously controversial and has been condemned by the European Parliament. The government’s of Tanzania and Uganda both denounced the resolution and confirmed that both were pressing ahead with the construction [source].
- The advent of a severe drought in Tanzania promoted the government to announce plans for new gas fed generation plants [source].
- 34% of Tanzanian electricity is generated from hydroelectric power, yet as a result of the drought, hydropower generation decreased by over 80% [source].
KJ-2: It is likely that Tanzania will provide assistance to Mozambique in combating extremism in the next 6 months.
- The Islamic State branch in Mozambique largely halted the flow of natural gas from Mozambique. The United States and partner countries are training the Mozambican military and providing material and financial assistance to combat the group and safeguard the flow of natural gas [source].
- Many young Mozambican men were radicalized in Kenyan and Tanzanian madrassas, according to Sheikh Nasrullahi Dula. IS Mozambique is led by a number of senior Tanzanian commanders, while recruits tend to be from Mozambique itself [source].
- IS-Mozambique conducted several cross-border incursions into Tanzania. For example, in October of 2020, 300 IS militants attacked a police station and adjacent village in southern Tanzania. This attack killed numerous civilians and police officers [source].
- The governments of Mozambique and Tanzania signed a deal in September which will address the threat of IS incursions into Tanzania and provide security assistance in Mozambique [source].
- The Southern African Development Community Mission in Mozambique has been less than successful in fighting IS militants in recent months [source].
- IS-Mozambique uses coastal villages and sea routes to bring in supplies and logistics from Tanzania. In an effort to curtail this, the Tanzanian government limited food exports to Cabo Delgado [source].
KJ-3: It is unlikely that Islamic State insurgents will threaten Tanzanian energy infrastructure in the next 6 months.
- A major goal of IS-Mozambique is to target the Mtwara oil pipeline in Tanzania. However, the Tanzanian military is well-trained and well-equipped to patrol the 800km border with Mozambique. Tanzania’s military is also better suited for COIN operations [source].
- Tanzanian military operations generally halted IS-Mozambiques’ northward expansion throughout 2020-2021 [source].
- IS-Mozambique suffered a large degree of causalities and battlefield attrition in the last year. This limited their numbers to roughly 500 fighters [source].
- During the 2020 attacks, IS militants targeted higher-income villages. They prioritized looting over capturing and holding territory [source].
- The incursions into Tanzanian territory are “opportunistic” efforts to terrorize local populations rather than sustain and permanent presence [source].
- The attacks required very little planning and premeditation. As such, the operations rely on rivers and porous points of entry and accessible telecommunications networks [source].
Intelligence Cut-Off Date 6 December 2022
