On 3 December 2023 a terror attack in Marawi, the country’s largest Muslim city, reignited fears of a resurgence of Islamic extremist violence. Philippine authorities linked the attack to the IS-affiliated Dawlah Islamiyah-Maute Group. [source] Radical Islamists as well as communist insurgents pose a dual threat to Philippine internal security. The threat from Islamic State-affiliated groups and the New People’s Army (NPA) has been significantly curtailed through a two-track strategy of counter-terror operations and negotiations. 

The next 12 months are a crucial period for the Philippines’ internal security. In the South, the Bangsamoro peace process, which has significantly curtailed regional Islamic terrorist violence, enters its final year. 2024 also marks another round of negotiations between the Philippine government and The National Democratic Front of the Philippines (NDFP)

Key Judgement 1. It is highly unlikely the Islamic State will resurge in the Philippines over the next 12 months.

Key Judgement 2. It is highly likely that the Philippines will continue to escalate counter-terror operations against Dawlah Islamiya-Maute Group (DI-MG) over the next 12 months.

Key Judgement 3.  It is likely communist terror attacks will slightly decrease during negotiations between the government and NDFP.