Executive Summary
Erdoğan has continued to display more authoritarian tendencies in his governing policies, and there is no indication that this trend will reverse. As a result, it is likely that Turkey’s economy and domestic conditions will deteriorate.
Recep Tayyip Erdoğan became the president of Turkey and the head of the Justice and Development Party (AKP) in 2014. At the outset of his presidency, Erdoğan instituted various reforms that made Turkey eligible for EU membership. However, Erdoğan’s policies soon turned more authoritarian and stalled the accession to the EU. In 2016, Erdoğan used the coup perpetrated by the Gülen Movement as a reason to consolidate presidential power. The consolidation of power is a trend that has continued into the present day.
On 19 March 2025, a couple of days before the Republican People’s Party (CHP) was set to determine their presidential candidate in the upcoming Turkish elections, the leading candidate, Turkish police arrested Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoğlu. This effectively removed him from the race. Subsequent social media posts decrying the incident ended in the detainment of 343 individuals since 22 March 2025. Since 2014, Turkey has continually displayed authoritarian policies, and the elimination of political rivals represents a further backsliding into authoritarianism.
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