Executive Summary

In less than 2 weeks, Russian drones have crossed into Poland, Romania, and with the latest jet incursion happening in Estonia in coordinated flights that forced NATO responses and airport closures. While Moscow and Minsk deny intent, the scale and timing of these incidents suggest deliberate probing of NATO’s defenses.

These incursions allowed Russia to observe radar coverage, response times, and escalation procedures. Poland’s and Estonia’s rare invocations of Article 4, along with the Romanian case, show that these are not isolated events but part of a growing pattern.

By using unarmed or decoy drones or claiming international airspace, Russia maintains ambiguity, avoiding an escalation while still undermining public confidence and alliance deterrence. The incidents also highlight NATO’s costly responses with advanced jets and systems to stop cheap drones, an imbalance that Russia can continue to exploit.