Mexico finds itself in a political context conditioned by cartel violence and the June 2024 presidential elections. Despite a slight improvement in recent years, Mexico continues to suffer from high levels of violence. The incidence of common and violent crime in Mexico is very high, with the most common crimes being robberies and assaults. Cartels have also demonstrated a willingness to use emerging technologies such as drones. In the coming year, the activity of criminal organisations will continue to be the main risk to the country’s national security (source).

Key Judgement 1. Mexican cartels are likely to intensify their use of drones to attack rival groups and authorities in the next 6 months.

Key Judgement 2. Violence by organised crime is likely to continue to dominate the country for the next 6 months.

Key Judgement 3. In the next 6 months, Mexican civil society is likely to intensify its fight against organised crime.