Executive Summary

Declassified law enforcement reports from Madrid indicate that the Venezuelan criminal organisation Tren de Aragua (TDA) has established an operational foothold within the European Union, with Spain functioning as its primary entry point. TDA leader Niño Guerrero’s decision to expand into the EU is likely driven, at least in part, by increasing pressure faced by the criminal organisation in Latin America and the United States, including the detention of the group’s second in command in Colombia and Washington’s designation of the group as a foreign terrorist organisation. We have not seen indicators of a TDA presence in Europe beyond Spain, but the group’s established modus operandi of expansion into North and South America suggests that it is capable of further growth in Europe.