Executive Summary

Despite a stalemated frontline in the Ukraine war, Russia continues reinforcing its army, feigning peace talks while escalating operations and attacks. Moscow almost certainly intends to sustain conventional operations against Ukraine due to sunk costs and manpower advantages, compounded by Kyiv’s shortages and delays in outside aid.

Therefore, Kyiv leverages special operations and advanced drones to offset conventional gaps. For instance, recently expanded U.S. and NATO funding, along with new laws, empower Ukraine’s SOF and intelligence organisations. This likely enables Kyiv to intensify offensive-oriented operations such as sabotage, deep strikes, and intelligence gathering. These efforts aim to exploit Russia’s rigid structure and conventional military weaknesses. Ukraine is also further expanding internal security and intelligence missions while increasing NATO intelligence-sharing.

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