The United States Africa Command and the Green Berets Third Group are looking to establish a new beachhead in West Africa to fight jihadist militants marching south from Mali and Niger. This comes after their troops were expelled from Niger and Chad in the middle of this year by decisions of the new local military juntas.

Benin and Ghana, as well as the Ivory Coast, are the last options for Washington to retain its counter-terrorist operations capability and to counter Moscow’s presence in the region. Stakes are high as special operators struggle to secure a new base and radical militias take advantage of the current situation to expand unchecked.

Key Judgments 

Key Judgement 1. The Islamic State in the Greater Sahara or Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal Muslimeen are likely to exploit the military setback of the United States Africa Command to advance from South Sahel into West Africa.

Key Judgement 2. Even if the Green Berets succeed in establishing another base in West Africa, there is a realistic probability that it will not have the same operational capability or troop strength as before. 

Key Judgement 3. It is highly likely that Wagner Group or the Afrika Korps will try to fill the gap left behind by the Green Berets Third Group in Niger and Chad.