Relations between the United States and the Republic of Venezuela are changing rapidly, amidst backroom negotiations and also aggressive diplomacy. Edmundo Gonzales’ theoretical victory over Nicolás Maduro pushed Washington into leading the International Community effort to support democracy during the initial weeks of the presidential election. 

However, local dynamics between the regime and the opposition are shifting the political landscape for diplomatic personnel every week. Strategies that could work in August are considered failed approaches in September.  Other challenges to an effective program in international relations additionally include unilateral actions from key actors like Rodríguez Zapatero. 

Washington seeks to pose a credible threat to Miraflores that may also stop the regime from escalating retaliations against the opposition leaders. Meanwhile, different countries from Latin America and the European Union manoeuvre to establish themselves as the leading entity in the International Community regarding democratic support efforts. 

Key Judgement 1. The United States is highly likely to maintain its strategy of constant pressure on the Venezuelan Government through economic sanctions and official statements. 

Key Judgement 2. Constant detention of American citizens in Venezuela will highly likely force the White House to keep open back-channels to Nicolás Maduro.

Key Judgement 3. It is likely that European Union talks with Nicolás Maduro could hinder the United States’ leading position on the opposition front.