In the Western Sahel, the Wagner Group (WG) and Jama’at Nasr al-Islam wal Muslimin (JNIM) are natural enemies. Indeed, the Malian Junta hired Wagner in December 2021 to tackle terrorism issues for mining concessions. JNIM is a coalition of multiple jihadist groups formed in 2017 loyal to al-Qaeda that aim to establish a caliphate in the centre of Mali and the Liptako-Gourma region. Although their antagonistic objectives would suggest a relationship of uncompromising direct opposition, both entities benefit from the other’s existence. While WG finds the conditions for its employment in the jihadist presence, JNIM draws on an anti-imperialist discourse to radicalise and recruit the local population. Hence, this dynamic balance renders the existence of one necessary to the other in a condition of dependent enmity.

Key Judgement 1: The conflict between JNIM and WG in the western Sahel will almost certainly rise over the next six months. In particular, Mali’s central regions will be the fighting territory. 

Key Judgement 2: It is highly likely that the competition between the Wagner group and JNIM for the access and control of the mines in Central and Northern Mali will increase over the next six months. 

Key Judgement 3: The growing difficulties of the Russian offensive against Ukraine will highly likely consolidate the reallocation of the Wagner group’s mercenaries to the Eastern European front, thus reducing their engagement in the African contexts (Mali, CAR). This could significantly advantage JNIM in the Western Sahel over the next six months.