On 4 April, Somalia escalated tensions with Ethiopia when it expelled Addis Ababa’s ambassador from Mogadishu over the Somaliland Memorandum of Understanding. Since 2006, Ethiopia has been a key regional security partner, fighting alongside Somalia against al-Shabaab. Somali and allied forces have made significant gains against al-Shabaab since 2022. However, as diplomatic relations have broken down between Somalia and Ethiopia, the continuation of joint counterterrorism operations has been called into question.

Fears of a security vacuum emerging are especially pertinent, considering the conclusion of the African Union’s Transition Mission to Somalia (ATMIS) in December 2024. Ethiopia’s bid to regain sea access is threatening to destabilise the Horn of Africa with serious consequences for its domestic security.

Key Judgement 1. If Ethiopia withdraws from Somalia in the next 12 months, it is likely Al-Shabab will regroup and pose a significant threat to the Ethiopian border region.

Key Judgement 2. It is unlikely Al-Shabaab will strike Ethiopian interests in Somaliland in the next 12 months.

Key Judgement 3. It is highly unlikely Al-Shabaab will launch a military-style offensive into Ethiopia in the next 12 months.