Executive Summary

Rising domestic tension and civil unrest will enable Al-Shabaab to continue carrying out attacks on Kenyan Defence Forces (KDF) and civilians, particularly in the regions next to the Kenya-Somalia border. We expect Al-Shabaab to seize windows of opportunity created by the instability to step up attacks, recruit new members, and strengthen its positions. In response, Nairobi will likely continue to fortify its counterterrorism capabilities by investing in its security forces and forging international partnerships to secure more assistance. The planned January 2025 launch of the African Union Support and Stabilization Mission in Somalia (AUSSOM) is a wild card variable that could affect the situation in one of several ways. [source, source]

In the past decade, Al-Shabaab demonstrated strong resilience and adaptability despite international counterterrorism efforts. Multiple international missions partially succeeded in regaining territory from Al-Shabaab and cutting its capabilities, particularly in Somalia. However, they did not fully disband the group or its operations and it continues to control significant territories and assets. [source]