Amhara, Oromia, Tigray: Ethiopia’s Regional Troubles

Background

Nine months after a devastating two-year war in the Tigray region, fighting has broken out in the neighbouring Amhara region between regional forces, the nationalist ‘Fano’ militia, and the Ethiopian government. In April 2023, federal forces entered the Amhara region to disarm local and paramilitary forces. Civilians moved to remote areas, while resistant fighters protested alongside police forces. Amhara nationalists accused the federal government of deliberately weakening their region, leading to clashes between the army and Fano. Since then, Ethiopia implemented a six-month state of emergency and curfew in the region. The conflict is now Ethiopia’s biggest security crisis since Tigray.

Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed is facing dire internal turmoil. His support base in Ormoria continues to dwindle with the threat of an Omoria Liberation Army (OLA) rebellion. The future of Abiy’s government and Ethiopia remains uncertain.

Key Judgement 1. ENDF will very likely attempt to retake Fano-held territory in the next 6 months.

Key Judgement 2. As the situation in Amhara escalates, Prime Minister Abiy will likely struggle to garner support from Oromia for the peace talks with the OLA.

Key Judgement 3. The escalating tensions between Amhara and Tigray likely pose a risk of involving Eritrea in the conflict and placing strain on the delicate détente between the two nations.

Rest of this post is for paying members only

Already have an account?  Log in

Free Plan
Free
Secret Plan
$14.99
/ month
Recommended
Top Secret Plan
$39.99
/ month
Free Plan
Free
Secret Plan
$14.99
/ month
Recommended
Top Secret Plan
$39.99
/ month
Table of Contents

Related Content

German Counter-Intelligence: A 12-Month Outlook

Location:_ Europe

Taiwan Under Siege: 
The Chinese Cyber Threat

Location:_ Far East

Russia-Ukraine War: Situational Assessment Summer 2024

Location:_ Europe

Nigerian Defence: Balancing Human Rights and Security

Location:_ West Africa

The Status of Iran’s Nuclear Weapons Programme in 2024

Location:_ MENA

Five Eyes Alliance vs China: A 12-Month Intelligence Analysis

Stay in the loop

Get a free weekly email that makes reading intel articles and reports actually enjoyable.

Log in

Stay in the loop

Get a free weekly email that makes reading Intelligence Reports and Articles actually enjoyable.

Table of Contents

Contact

Contact

"*" indicates required fields

This field is for validation purposes and should be left unchanged.