Executive Summary

We assess that Norway in 2026 is likely to continue increasing its defence preparedness, capabilities and coordination with NATO allies in the High North Arctic. Amid increasing concerns regarding the vulnerability of its strategic military assets, and in response to Russian and Chinese aggression. One of Osloʻs key challenges will likely be Russian intelligence collection and sabotage operations aimed at Norwayʻs Arctic security infrastructure. Another key challenge to Norwayʻs Arctic activities will likely be Chinaʻs use of Arctic research to cover intelligence collection as part of a larger espionage operation against the NATO member.