Executive Summary

We assess that China will increasingly use the People’s Armed Forces Maritime Militia (aka Chinese Maritime Militia or Fishery Militia) in the South China Sea (SCS) and the West Philippine Sea to harass vessels that it claims are foreign and unauthorized to operate in areas contested by Beijing. This is part of China’s strategy over the past decade to increase its aggressiveness in the region. Beijing now claims to own nearly all of the SCS. These actions attempt to establish a new normal and invalidate internationally recognized claims by the Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia and Brunei.

Since the January 2024 publication of our 12-month forecast on Unrestricted Warfare in the South China Sea, which outlined expectations of the tensions between China and the Philippines, the struggle for control over the island chain and shoals, and the presence of the Chinese militia’s “Little Blue Men,” has only intensified and now includes Taiwan and Vietnam. Even so, we expect Beijing to continue blaming neighbouring countries and foreign influence for rising tensions in the region. In response, the international community will likely continue to condemn China’s aggressive actions in the SCS by implementing sanctions against private entities affiliated with the fishing vessels in the militia.