On 8 July, China began an eleven-day counterterrorism exercise in Belarus called Operation Eagle Assault. The joint Chinese-Belarussian exercise took place in the city of Brest, five kilometres from the Polish NATO border. Eagle Assault also coincided with NATO’s 75th Anniversary Summit in Washington where China was criticised for enabling Russia’s war in Ukraine. Since 2022, China has been key to Russia and Belarus’ sanctions evasion. On 4 July, Belarus cemented their partnership with China by becoming a full member of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO). Previously, China has engaged in maritime exercises and port visits in Europe but never land-based exercises. The timing, location and unprecedented nature of China’s actions have therefore led Western observers to interpret the exercise as a deliberate message to NATO. Whether this message is a direct threat to NATO territory or simply a reminder of China’s global reach has remained ambiguous.

Key Judgement 1. It is highly likely NATO’s increased security integration with democracies in the Asia-Pacific has driven China to reaffirm their own authoritarian alliance in Europe.

Key Judgement 2. It is almost certain China could not threaten NATO with a permanent contingent of troops in Europe unless China significantly expanded their strategic airlift capability.

Key Judgement 3. It is highly unlikely China’s drill in Belarus indicates Beijing is abandoning its public neutrality towards the War in Ukraine.