In February, Norwegian intelligence released its annual threat assessment report, stating that the recent revision of the Chinese counter-espionage law considered a broad definition of ‘intelligence activity’. China’s intelligence networks in Europe pose a significant security threat, engaging in political intelligence, industrial espionage, and cyber activities. Recent reports from sources like the Norwegian government and NATO allies highlight concerns regarding the activities of Chinese intelligence networks in Europe. These networks gather political intelligence, conduct industrial espionage, and utilize cyberspace for their operations. The espionage activities have penetrated military systems in the Netherlands, EU parliament, and UK civil society and businesses. Additionally, the reports highlighted significant concerns with the revision as it may also include investing and/or manufacturing in China. 

Key Judgment 1. China’s espionage activities in Europe will likely mobilize civil society and expatriates, complicating European counter-espionage efforts in the next 12 months.

Key Judgment 2. Chinese intelligence operations will likely challenge Western influence and liberal values in and beyond Europe in the next 12 months.

Key Judgment 3. European and UK focus on the conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East will likely increase their vulnerability to Chinese espionage in the next 12 months.