Executive Summary

Could Pakistan’s new found offshore oil and gas reserves be the solution to its long festering security and economic woes? Senior Pakistani officials certainly believe so [source]. Following a 3 year long energy survey, Pakistan may be sitting on what amounts to the world’s 4th largest source of untapped oil and gas reserves.

Pakistan’s economy has been in a tail spin for several years now. Catastrophic flooding in 2022, gasoline rationing, dwindling reserves of foreign cash and high inflation all combined into a toxic admixture for economic growth. On top of this, Islamabad is laden with a tremendous amount of foreign debt, totaling approximately $126 billion. As major economic indices trend downwards, security dynamics suffer proportionally, with rates of violence and terror on the rise since 2021 [source].

We do not expect this recent discovery of offshore hydrocarbons to have an immediate and tangible effect on Pakistan’s deteriorating economic health and security issues. We believe that China will play a large role in assisting Pakistan in exploiting these untapped reserves. Moreover, we expect to see emergent tensions between Pakistan and India over a failure to demarcate the exact coordinates of its maritime border.