Background

Founded in 2007, the AU Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS), formerly recognized as the AU Mission in Somalia (AMISOM), assembled approximately 22,000 troops from Uganda, Burundi, and the nearby nations of Kenya, Ethiopia, and Djibouti. The primary objective of the AU peacekeeping forces was to support the federal government of Somalia in its conflict against al-Shabab. However, the mission has faced numerous challenges, including the complex political landscape, insurgency by extremist groups such as Al-Shabaab, and resource constraints. Despite years of service, ATMIS has struggled to fully eliminate the threat posed by Al-Shabaab and establish a stable security environment in Somalia.

Key Judgement 1. It is likely that in the next 12 months ATMIS will cease operations. 

Key Judgement 2. In the next 12 months, the exit of AU forces will contribute to the overall insecurity of the Somali government and its regions.

Key Judgement 3.  It is likely that the US military will continue its operations in Somalia as the AU withdraws from Somalia in the next 12 months.