On 5 February, Bulgarian Officials arrested a Bulgarian state security officer for spying for Russia following the efforts to remove Russian spy networks within the state. The officer is accused of leaking classified information to a Russian diplomat in the Russian Embassy in Sofia. Bulgaria’s counterintelligence service recently arrested a group of six Bulgarians suspected of spying for Russia on 18 March. This incident created diplomatic tensions between the two countries. The arrested individuals are accused of passing classified information to Russian Embassy personnel. Ivan Iliev, a retired military intelligence employee with ties to Russia’s GRU, facilities the leaks. The espionage network targeted sensitive topics such as US-Bulgarian maritime coordination, NATO activities, and EU/NATO policies on Russia, Belarus, and Ukraine. This report examines the prospects for espionage and counter-espionage in Bulgaria in the near term.

Key-Judgement 1: It is likely that Bulgaria will intensify efforts to eliminate activities by Russian operatives within the government structures in the next 12 months.

Key-Judgement 2: It is highly likely that arrests will exacerbate diplomatic tensions between Bulgaria and Russia, leading to retaliatory measures in the next 12 months.

Key-Judgement 3: It is likely that protracted acts of Russian espionage will undermine pro-Russian coalitions in the Bulgarian Parliament in the next 12 months.