In late October 2023, an alliance of 3 ethnic armed organizations (EAOs), the Three Brotherhood Alliance, launched Operation 1027. This coordinated offensive weakened Myanmar’s military and began to turn the tide in the civil war. 8 months later, on June 25, the second phase of Operation 1027 began as the Chinese-brokered ceasefire ended. Since then, all 3 EAOs have made territorial gains, some in key strategic cities or previous military strongholds. Crucially, Myanmar’s military force has also been significantly depleted. Myanmar and its military therefore face an uncertain future, one more dependent on international involvement.

Key Judgment 1. It is highly likely that fighting in Myanmar will escalate as Myanmar’s resistance makes major advances.

Key Judgment 2. It is highly likely that the Arakan Army’s control over the Rakhine state worsens the persecution of the Rohingya population.

Key Judgment 3. It is highly likely that escalation on the China-Myanmar border increases PLA involvement.