Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has created an even tenser atmosphere in the Arctic. The war changed key political dynamics with NATO and its two new Arctic members: Sweden and Finland. In Russia’s  2020 Arctic Strategy 2035, the Kremlin focused on the creation of new transport routes, environmental protections and maritime delimitation (source; source). However, tensions with NATO have led to a shift in priorities towards security and military countermeasures (source). These recent developments put the Arctic in Russia’s sights, with implications for domestic and foreign policy over the next 12 months.

Key Judgement 1. In the next 12 months, Russia is likely to intensify its military presence in the Arctic.

Key Judgement 2. Over the next 12 months, Russia will likely continue strengthening Arctic transport routes, focusing on energy exports.

Key Judgement 3. It is likely that in the next 12 months, Russia will seek political-economic cooperation in Arctic affairs with China.