The UAE has a growing interest in Sahelian security. Since the start of the war in Sudan in April and the decline of French influence across the region, the UAE has increased their support to Chad in an effort to bring stability. Additionally, increasing violence in Darfur threatens neighbouring Chad with a further influx of refugees. Overall, The UAE’s interest in the Sahel encompasses security, economic, and political support.

Key Judgement 1: It is likely that the UAE will invest in Sahelian and West African countries over the next 12 months in order to counter insecurity in the region.

Key Judgement 2: It’s likely that the UAE will support Chad with military equipment and humanitarian aid to ease the influx of refugees from neighbouring Sudan in the next 12 months.

Key Judgement 3: It is a realistic possibility that the UAE is supplying weapons to the RSF under the guise of humanitarian aid through Chad into Sudan.