Mali’s reliance on United Nations Multidimensional Integrated Stabilisation Mission (MINUSMA) peacekeeping forces and European Union military forces to win the Mali War is ending. Mali now looks to Russia for aid against a rising terrorist threat to the capital. Citing the beginning of Bamako’s new reliance on the Wagner Group, many nations have started troop withdrawals from Mali. These nations include Germany and France, as well as Cote d’Ivoire and Benin. Marking a new turn in the Mali War as the Goïta administration pivots to utilise the Wagner Group to help combat extremist and separatist elements in the state.

Key Judgement 1. Within the next twelve months, it is likely that the UN will end the MINUSMA program due to an inability to staff the force structure and a breakdown in relations with the Malian government.

Key Judgement 2. Mali will likely face condemnation and sanctions from the international community within the coming 12 months over sanctions evasion in its relationship with Wagner Group and Malian army war crimes. 

Key Judgement 3. JNIM will likely be able to infiltrate and attack key targets within Bamako, thus completing its march towards the country’s capital in its 2023 offensive.