Executive Summary

Finland, with roughly a third of its territory above the Arctic Circle and sharing a border of nearly 900 miles with Russia, is a key player in the Arctic. It is among several countries that are competing for Arctic resources, territory and shipping routes, all of which could shift the global power balance and increasingly are seen as making the Arctic a potential flashpoint.

We assess that Finland in 2026 is likely to further strengthen its Arctic defensive posture, including intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance (ISR) capabilities. Additionally, Finland is highly likely to continue leveraging its leading icebreaker production skills this year to support allied maritime operations. Tensions between Helsinki and Moscow are likely to persist, if not increase, through 2026.