Background

The United States is one of the most powerful arctic nations in the world. With global temperatures rising, controlling the Arctic Circle has increasingly strategic advantages. Melting Arctic ice introduces new opportunities and competition for shipping routes and resources in the region.

Post-Cold War arms reduction treaties and a major shift in US military focus to the Middle East after 9/11 reduced the DoD’s Arctic focus. Now,  the DoD frequently revisits its Arctic strategy as tensions with Russia and China rise. US policymakers aim to steadily increase US  military presence, infrastructure, and capabilities in the region. An updated strategy is to be released in 2024. 

Key Judgement 1. U.S. Policymakers will likely prioritise elevating the quality of its Arctic bases and operations in the next 12 months.

Key Judgement 2. The US will likely encounter more geostrategic competition over the Arctic in the next 12 months.

Key Judgement 3. The US will likely take a leading role in the Arctic Council in the next 12 months.