Executive Summary

Jubaland, a semi-autonomous region in the South of Somalia, is now a focal point in the escalation of tensions between regional leadership and Mogadishu’s federal government. The leader of Jubaland, Ahmed Mohamed Islam (better known as Ahmed Madobe), has taken power for a third term. This was contested by the federal government as unlawful due to limits being set at two terms for the position, and the lack of centralized overview of the election process. The tension escalated into clashes between federal forces and Jubaland forces. Jubaland suspended relations with the federal government and drove its army out of the region. These events complicate the ongoing fight against the armed group al Shabaab, present in Jubaland’s southern regions. Despite the complicated scenario, Madobe stands strong due to international alliances, strong backing by clan structures, and claims of electoral legitimacy.